Transient simulation of the MIDdle HOLocene with a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model - MIDHOL
PIs: Julie Jones (GKSS, now Univ. of Sheffield), Martin Widmann (GKSS, now Univ. of Birmingham)
Project Scientist: Sebastian Wagner (GKSS)
The project aims at improving our understanding of the magnitude and spatial structure of
Holocene climate variability and its causes, by undertaking transient
simulations (experiments) with a state-of-the-art, coupled
atmosphere-ocean sea ice General Circulation Model (GCM)
period 6.5 ka BP - 4.5 ka BP. These experiments can be tested for consistency with proxy-based climate
reconstructions, and will provide improved estimates for pre-industrial
climate variability during the Holocene, which will help to assess with
higher confidence how unusual the climate changes since the beginning
of the twentieth century are. It also can be analysed for the effects
of varying forcing factors. Moreover, as GCMs are the main tool for
estimating the sensitivity of future climate to changing atmospheric
concentrations of greenhouse gases, but there is still a high level of
uncertainty about how realistic GCMs represent the climate, there is a
need for long simulations accompanied by consistency tests with proxy
data for model validation. MIDHOL will
focus on the mid-Holocene because PROSIMUL and SALSA have produced several
results and hypotheses related to the climate evolution during this
period, and because standard fully coupled AOGCM climate simulations for
the late Holocene, but not for earlier periods, are already available or
underway. |